நேற்றய சந்தைகள் 5400 என்ற தாண்ட இயலாத நிலையில் ,இன்றய வர்த்தக நேர தொடக்கம் முதல் சந்தை கிழ இறங்க அதிக வாய்ப்புகள் காணப்படுகின்றன இன்று 5335 -5325 என்ற நிலை உடைப்படுமையின் அடுத்த சில நாட்களுக்கு சந்தை கரடிகள்கு வாய்ப்பாக ஆமையும் புதிய முதலிட்டாளர்கள் பொறுத்திருக்கவும் .
தேசிய நிபிட்டி 45 முதல் 60 புள்ளிகள் வரை இன்று இறக்க நேரிடலாம் .
சந்தையை பொறுத்த வரை 5405 -5415 எப்படி கடக்கிறது என்பதை வைத்தே அடுத்த கட்ட எட்ட்ரதுகு சந்தை தயாராகும் .
STOCKS TO WATCH
RELIANCE
BHARAT FORGE
CANARA BANK
IDBI
IOB
RELIGARE
ANDHRA BANK
TECH MAHI
TCS
JAIN IRR
REL IND.INFR
GUN NRE COKE
BOMBAY DYEING
TATA STEEL
ESSAR OIL
MRPL
RNRL
HDIL
DLF
ACKRITHI CITY
JSW STEEL
ISPAT IND
PIRAMAL
RANBAXY
FT
SIEMENS
DIVIS LAB
OPTO CIR
GODREJ CON
UNITED SPRI
THERMAX
LNT
AREVA TND
ORIENTAL BANK
PNB
CHAMBAL FER
NFL
The key benchmark indices declined in choppy trade, mimicking volatile European stocks. Reports that rains were 24% below normal in the week to 14 July 2010, also weighed on sentiments. The market breadth was negative in contrast to a strong breadth witnessed earlier in the day. The BSE 30-share Sensex was provisionally down 21.82 points or 0.12%, up close to 60 points from the day's low and off about equal points from the day's high. FMCG and IT stocks rose. But, capital goods and realty stocks fell. Auto stocks were mixed. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) edged higher in volatile trade.
After initial volatility, the market moved in a range in morning trade. The market came off lows in mid-morning trade. But, the intraday recovery proved short-lived - the market weakened in early afternoon trade. Selling intensified in afternoon trade as European markets opened lower. The Sensex hit a fresh intraday low in afternoon trade. The market came off the lower level later. The market recovered sharply and regained positive territory in mid-afternoon trade as European stocks recovered. The market once again slipped into the red later.
In the futures & options segment, the lower exposure margin requirement for stock derivatives has become effective today, 15 July 2010.
Foreign funds continue to mop up Indian stocks. Foreign funds have bought Indian equities worth a net Rs 4023.53 crore this month so far, till 14 July 2010, as per data from the stock exchanges. Foreign funds had pumped in Rs 7713.97 crore in equities in June 2010
Domestic funds have sold shares worth a net Rs 1488.52 crore this month so far, till 14 July 2010. They had sold equities worth a net Rs 4777.05 crore in June 2010.
On the macro front, the latest data showed that the fuel price index rose 14.27% in the year to 3 July 2010 and the food price index climbed 12.81%. Fuel price inflation eased from the previous week's annual rise of 18.02% while the pace of food price inflation edged up marginally from last week's 12.63%. Food inflation edged up because of higher rice and wheat prices. The primary articles index was up 16.25% compared with the previous week's reading of 16.08%.
Agency reports on Thursday, 15 July 2010, said monsoon rains were 24% below normal in the week to 14 July 2010. It may be recalled that revival of monsoon rains last week had helped accelerate the planting of rice, oilseeds and cotton. The area under rice cultivation jumped 56% to 7.2 million hectares on 9 July 2010 while cotton planting rose by half, last week, compared with a week before. Rainfall was 16% below average in June 2010. The shortfall had narrowed to 10% last week.
The Southwest monsoon was vigorous over Chhattisgarh and active over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during past 24 hours, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its daily update on Wednesday, 14 July 2010. The IMD expects widespread rain/thundershowers in East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim in the near term. Fairly widespread rainfall would occur over Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Northeastern States, West Madhya Pradesh, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep, the IMD said.
Fairly widespread rain/thundershowers would occur over west coast and scattered over Gujarat region, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and South interior Karnataka, the IMD added. Isolated rain/thundershowers would occur over West Uttar Pradesh during next 24 hours and increase thereafter, it added.
The south west monsoon is important for India as about 60% of the country's farmlands are rain-fed and more than half of the workforce is employed in the agriculture sector. The weather office expects this year's monsoon rains to be at 102% of the long-period average. Good monsoon rains would help raise farm output, boost rural incomes and lower food inflation.
European equities swung between gains and losses on Thursday, 15 July 2010, as investors weighed relatively strong company earnings against worries about a slowdown in China's economic growth.. The key benchmark indices in UK and France were down by 0.06% to 0.34%. Germany's DAX rose 0.03%.
Asian stocks fell on Thursday, 15 July 2010, with a mixed lead from Wall Street and data showing further cooling in the Chinese economy weighing on shares. The key benchmark indices in China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea fell by between 0.13% to 1.87%.
The Bank of Bank of Japan (BoJ) today left its key rate unchanged at 0.1% at a policy review. The central bank raised its view for the country's economic growth this fiscal year, as Japan caught a tailwind from emerging markets. The BoJ also slightly tweaked its price expectations to show more moderate deflation this fiscal year.
China reported on Thursday a slowdown in second-quarter economic growth. Gross domestic product grew 10.3% over the same period a year earlier, slowing from the 11.9% annual growth recorded in the first quarter.
The data also showed price inflation continued to slow in June. The country's consumer price index for June increased 2.9%, while its producer price index expanded 6.4% from the year-earlier month.
Trading in US index futures indicated a flat opening of US stocks on Thursday, 15 July 2010. US index futures swung between gains and losses earlier.
US stocks ended flat on Wednesday, 14 July 2010 after the Federal Reserve suggested additional measures may be needed to combat a weakening economy. Minutes of the Fed's June meeting showed officials are more concerned with the pace of economic recovery. That added to jitters stoked by a weak report on June retail sales. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 3.70 points, or 0.04% to end at 10,366.72. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dipped just 0.17 of a point, or 0.02% to 1,095.17. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 7.81 points or 0.35% to close at 2,249.84.
Closer home, industrial output in May 2010 rose at a slower-than-expected 11.5% from a year earlier, data showed on Monday, 12 July 2010. Manufacturing output rose an annual 12.3%, the statistics office said. Mining output was up 8.7% and power generation rose 6.4%. Production of capital goods rose 34.3% year-on-year after an annual rise of 72.8% in April 2010, while consumer durables output grew 23.7%, down from a 37% rise in the previous month April's industrial production growth was revised downwards to 16.5% from 17.6%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on 8 July 2010 raised its world output forecast for 2010, citing solid growth in the first half, especially in Asia, but warned of significant downside risks flowing from Europe. The IMF revised its 2010 world gross domestic product forecast to 4.6%, up from a previous forecast in April of 4.2%. The 2011 GDP forecast was unchanged at 4.3%.
The IMF raised India's growth forecast for 2010 to 9.5%, stating that favourable financing conditions and robust corporate profits will accelerate economic expansion. The IMF expects India's economy to grow 8.5% in 2011.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 2 July 2010, hiked the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.5% from 5.25%, with immediate effect. It also hiked the reverse repo rate, at which it absorbs excess cash from the banking system, by an equal 25 basis points to 4% from 3.75%. The central bank said the latest rate hike is a part of the calibrated exit from the expansionary monetary policy.
Two-thirds of WPI inflation in May 2010 was contributed by non-food items, suggesting that inflation is now very much generalised and that demand-side pressures are evident, the central bank said in a statement. WPI inflation increased to 10.2% in May 2010, up from 9.6% in April 2010.
In its April 2010 policy review, the Reserve Bank projected real GDP growth for 2010-11 at 8% with an upside bias. More recent data suggest that the upside bias has largely materialized, the central bank on 2 July 2010. The growth projection will be reviewed in the first quarter review on 27 July 2010, RBI said.
Analysts expect a further 25 basis points hike in short term interest rates by the central bank at the policy review later this month.
The latest data showed the headline inflation rose lower-than-expected 10.55% in June 2010. The rate of increase was higher than May's rise of 10.16%. Inflation for April 2010 was revised upwards to 11.23% from 9.59%.
As per provisional figures, the BSE 30-share Sensex was down 21.82 points or 0.12% at 17,916.34. The Sensex rose 40.40 points at the day's high of 17978.56 in early trade. The index fell 79.43 points at the day's low 17,858.73 in afternoon trade.
The S&P CNX Nifty was down 5.40 points or 0.1% at 5,380.75 as per provisional figures.
The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.18%. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.16%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.
The market breadth, indicating the strength of the broader market, was negative in contrast to a strong breadth earlier in the day. On BSE, 1608 shares declined while 1320 shares advanced. A total of 83 shares remained unchanged.
From the 30 share Sensex pack, 17 stocks fell and rest rose.
BSE clocked turnover of Rs 4295 crore, lower than Rs 4887.42 crore on Wednesday, 14 July 2010.
IT bellwether Infosys rose 0.65%, on bargain hunting after a two-day slide triggered by disappointing Q1 result. At the time of announcing the results early this week, Infosys warned that the global economic environment continues to be uncertain, even though the company raised its full-year revenue and profit forecasts.
Infosys' consolidated net profit as per International Financial Reporting Standards (IRFS) declined 7% to Rs 1488 crore on 4.3% increase in revenue to Rs 6198 crore in Q1 June 2010 over Q4 March 2010. Operating profit declined 1.9% to Rs 1755 crore in Q1 June 2010 over Q4 March 2010. The operating profit margin (OPM) declined to 28.31% in Q1 June 2010 from 30.09% in Q4 March 2010. During the quarter, the company and its subsidiaries hired as many as 8,859 employees in total, but the net addition to its headcount was just 1,026.
India's third largest IT exporter by sales Wipro rose 1.19%. India's largest IT exporter by sales TCS rose 1.12%, reversing initial losses ahead of its Q1 results today.
India's largest engineering and construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro fell 0.42%. The stock retraced from a 52-week high of Rs 1,897.30 at the onset of the trading session. L&T's two joint venture (JV) companies with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) and Mitsubishi Electric Corporation (MELCO) commenced production of turbine generators and boilers at their newly set up factories in Hazira, Surat, L&T said during market hours today. Each of the 2 factories is capable of producing 4000 MW of power generating equipment annually.
Among other capital goods stocks, Bharat Heavy Electricals, SKF India and Praj Industries fell by between 0.31% to 0.95%.
Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 0.28% to Rs 1072. The stock hit a high of Rs 1079.90 and a low of Rs 1065. RIL reportedly has approached the Competition Commission of India (CCI) alleging that state-run oil companies have formed a cartel to supply aviation turbine fuel to national carrier Air India.
RIL and Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) on 25 June 2010, entered into a new gas supply agreement, as directed by the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court had ordered the two companies to renegotiate the Gas Supply Master Agreement, which was signed between the Ambani brothers as part of the business demerger in 2005. RIL also recently announced its seventh oil discovery in Cambay basin in Gujarat.
Reliance Communications (RCom) fell 1.66% and was the top loser from the Sensex pack. As per reports, Reliance Communications may have to lower the value of its tower assets being sold to GTL Infrastructure in view of a likely stake sale in RCom to Abu Dhabi's Etisalat.
Interest rate sensitive realty stocks fell on rate hike worries. Parsvnath Developers, Unitech, Indiabulls Real Estate, HDIL, Ansal Properties and Phoenix Mills fell by between 0.86% to 1.62%.
Auto stocks were mixed. India's largest tractor maker by sales Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) rose 0.71%, reversing initial losses. The company reported an increase of 19.84% in auto sales to 27,562 units in June 2010 over June 2009. Despite the annual shutdown in the first week of June, the auto division posted strong growth rates, M&M said in a press release. Tractor sales declined 9% to 16,590 units in June 2010 over June 2009, as the company is facing supply constraints from component makers (casting and tyres).
India's largest car maker by sales Maruti Suzuki India fell 0.88%, with the stock falling for the second straight day. The company's total vehicle sales rose 17.3% to 88,091 vehicles in June 2010 over June 2009.
Bajaj Auto fell 1.1% after gaining 1.42% on Wednesday. The company said during market hours Wednesday that a meeting of the board of directors of the company will be held on 22 July 2010 to consider bonus issue of shares.
The country's largest two-wheeler maker Hero Honda Motors fell 0.75%. The company reported a 16.6% jump in its sales at 4,26,454 in June 2010 over June 2009.
India's largest truck maker by sales, Tata Motors rose 1.53% after its global vehicles sales rose 46% to 91,608 units in June 2010 over June 2009. The figure includes its British luxury unit Jaguar Land Rover, whose sales rose 47% in the month to 20,189 units.
Ashok Leyland jumped 5.11%, reversing initial losses. The company reported an over two-fold jump in total commercial vehicle sales to 8,400 units in June 2010 compared to the same month last year.
FMCG stocks rose on renewed buying. Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Marico, United Spirits rose by between 0.32% to 2.68%.
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